Wednesday, 24 December 2008

What Is a Trading System?

Beginning traders and investors to some seasoned investors are constantly asking us “What exactly is a system?” The purpose of this article will be to give you that information as clearly as possible. First, we’ll go through some background information to help you understand what a system is outside of the context of trading. You’ll learn how different people relate to systems according to how they relate to money. The second part of this article will focus on clearly defining what a trading system is. The third part of this article will focus on the broader picture of your system—your trading plan. Finally, we’ll focus on some key elements in system development.

Business Systems

In Robert Kiyosaki’s book, Cash-Flow Quadrant, he distinguishes two types of people who work for money and two types of people who have money working for them. In each case, one of the major distinguishing characteristics is how they deal with systems.

First, let’s look at the idea of business systems. McDonald’s, as a major franchise, is basically a large set of systems that one buys. In fact, a person who buys a McDonald’s franchise must go to Hamburger University for about six months (I believe that’s the length of it) to learn the systems for operating the franchise. There are systems for food delivery, preparing food, greeting customers, serving them within a minute, cleanup, etc. And all of these systems can easily be carried out by a manager who has a college degree and employees who might even be high school dropouts. In other words, a system is something that is repeatable, simple enough to be run by a 16 year old who might not be that bright, and works well enough to keep many people returning as customers.

Now, knowing that definition of a system, let’s look at how people in the four cash flow quadrants relate to systems.

The Employee: Employees are basically motivated by security. They have a job and they do their work to get money. Employees basically run the systems. They don’t necessarily know that they are running a system, but that is their function. For example, one employee at McDonald’s will greet customers and take their order. This employee is basically running the “customer-greeting” system.

Most employees do not understand systems. Instead, they just know what their job is. And this is typical of employees who become traders or employees who work as traders. They typically ask questions such as “What stocks should I buy?” “What is the market going to do?” Or “How do I go about doing this?” We see it all the time in the questions we get. For example, a gentleman just called into CNBC, as I’m writing this, and asked the guest, “What direction do you think the market may go with respect to 'the war' and how might one profit from it?” These are typically employee questions. And they amount to saying, “I don’t really understand anything, please tell me what to do!” The financial media thrives by answering the questions of the employee investor/trader.

The Self-Employed Person: The self-employed person is basically motivated by control and doing it right. Notice that I have often talked about how these motivations constitute some of the biases that most traders have—the need to be right and the need to control the markets. The self-employed person is the entire system. They are basically running on a treadmill only they don’t know it. And the more they work, the more tired they get.

Like the employee, the self-employed are working for money. However, they like it a little better, because they are in charge. They think working harder will make them more money—and to a certain extent it does. But mostly, working harder gets them tired. Nevertheless, they continue to plough forward thinking that they are the only ones who can do it right.

As I said earlier, the self-employed person basically is the system. And quite often they cannot see the system because they are so much a part of it. They are stuck in all the details. In addition, they have a strong tendency to want to “complexify” things. They are always looking for perfectionism and they believe that the perfect system must be complex. They are always asking, “What will make my system perfect?”

A lot of people come into trading from the self-employed mentality—doctors, dentists, and other professionals who had their own small business in which they were basically all of the systems in one. This is all they tend to know and they approach trading the same way. They keep adding complexity “until it works,” even though this strategy seldom works. The self-employed person would be likely to have a discretionary system that is constantly being changed.

Industry Trade Policy

The Office of Trade Policy Analysis (OTPA) serves as the International Trade Administration’s principal advisor on trade policy issues affecting the competitive position of multiple U.S. industries while also representing the Manufacturing and Services division in key international trade negotiations and policy initiatives. In this capacity, OTPA utilizes complex economic and trade policy analyses to help ensure that the national economic interest of U.S. industry is fully represented in deliberations and negotiations where national or international policies impacting domestic industries are being developed and/or debated.

This site makes available a variety of reports, analyses and resources to assist you in following and interpreting trade policy developments affecting U.S. industry competitiveness.

Many SMEs Stand to Profit from Future Global Trade Negotiations

The Commerce Department's Exporter Database (EDB) reveals that in 2003 the total number of U.S. firms exporting goods stood at 225,190—almost double the 112,854 firms that exported in 1992. The EDB captures companies exporting merchandise, but not firms that export only services.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (companies with fewer than 500 workers) would be among the major beneficiaries of U.S. initiatives to reduce foreign barriers to U.S. exports. A total of 218,382 SMEs exported from the United States in 2003, accounting for 97 percent of all U.S. exporters. This is up slightly from the 96 percent share registered in 1992.

Very small companies—i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees—made up 69 percent (more than two-thirds) of all U.S. exporting firms in 2003. This is up significantly from 1992, when 59 percent of all exporters employed fewer than 20 people. This includes firms where the number of employees is unknown.

SMEs accounted for over 98 percent of the 1992-2003 growth in the exporter population. The number of SMEs that export merchandise soared from 108,026 in 1992 to 218,382 in 2003.

The SME share of U.S. merchandise exports has recently hovered around

Many SMEs Stand to Profit from Future Global Trade Negotiations

The Commerce Department's Exporter Database (EDB) reveals that in 2003 the total number of U.S. firms exporting goods stood at 225,190—almost double the 112,854 firms that exported in 1992. The EDB captures companies exporting merchandise, but not firms that export only services.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (companies with fewer than 500 workers) would be among the major beneficiaries of U.S. initiatives to reduce foreign barriers to U.S. exports. A total of 218,382 SMEs exported from the United States in 2003, accounting for 97 percent of all U.S. exporters. This is up slightly from the 96 percent share registered in 1992.

Very small companies—i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees—made up 69 percent (more than two-thirds) of all U.S. exporting firms in 2003. This is up significantly from 1992, when 59 percent of all exporters employed fewer than 20 people. This includes firms where the number of employees is unknown.

SMEs accounted for over 98 percent of the 1992-2003 growth in the exporter population. The number of SMEs that export merchandise soared from 108,026 in 1992 to 218,382 in 2003.

The SME share of U.S. merchandise exports has recently hovered around

Benefits of Share Buy Back

Following any one reason may apply,
a) To arrest/stop the fall in stock price.
b) In some situation company may want to bring down the public holding
and increase promoters holding.
c) If the company sees there is no better opportunity to deploy its cash
reserves then it may decide to buy back its shares.
d) The buy back may improve companies return ratios

1. Buy back at good premium, may increase the stock price in share
market.
2. As buy back of shares reduces outstanding shares, the EPS (EPS is
calculated by dividing net profit by outstanding shares) may look good.
The ROA (Return on Asset) and ROE (Return on Equity) may improve
by fall in outstanding shares and assets (in this scenario, excess cash).

Returns on investment in Indian companies

There are very important benefits of Delivery based trading
¨ Hold as long as you want
If you buy shares and if it goes down, then you can hold them and sell them only when your shares go above your buy price.
¨ Loan
Nowadays some banks and some financial firms provide loans on your shares. So you can utilize your shares in your bad times.
¨ Dividend (very important)
If companies make good profit, then they may declare dividend per share. If you hold shares of such companies then you may get
dividend per share.
¨ Good returns
Nowadays if you keep your money in banks then you get maximum 9% or 9.5% per year. If you invest in shares of good growing
companies then you can earn minimum 15% returns per year. Some companies give 30 to 40% returns per year.
Best share market returns are based on delivery based trading for long term.
¨ Bonus share
If company makes extra ordinary profit then company may declare bonus shares. Bonus share like 1:1 means if you have one share
then you may get another free.
So if you have delivery of such shares then you are liable for such bonus shares.

Corporate investment for long term trading

Taking delivery of shares during Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 results is very common among investors/traders who knew the historical
performance and current market situation of those particular companies or sector, so study historical yearly profits and sales ratios
of top companies and buy shares of those companies.
Some weeks before, their quarterly results and after declaring their huge growth in quarterly results, obviously share price will shoot
up then you may sell your shares and make handsome profit in very few weeks.
¨ If you hold bit longer, then you may also get benefited of dividend. If companies make outstanding profit then they may declare
dividend.
For more guidance or advice on trading on new

Tips for shares investment in delivery based trading


Please study following points, carefully, and get best returns in short period of time.
Basically, Delivery based trading can be minimum one week, one month or couple of months. How long to hold your scrip’s/shares will depend on other technical indicators and averages.
How to select best scrip’s
There are thousands of shares/stocks, which one is best for delivery trading and which one will give maximum profit in short period of time. Please have a look following selection criteria points.
Points to remember for fundamental screening,
1. Sector - 50% of stocks rise and fall is directly related to the strengths and
weakness of its industry group.
2. Never lose more than 1-2% of your total amount on any one trade.
3. Promoters holding more than 40% indicate safety for retail investors.
(Promo)
4. FII holding minimum 20 and maximum 25 is safe for retailer, not much volatility.
More FII investment = more volatility.
5. Liquidity - buying and selling of shares minimum 1L/day

Investment in delivery based trading

Delivery based trading means buying shares and holding them for certain period of time is called delivery based trading.
The shares you bought will be in your demat account.
Once you take delivery of shares you can hold them as long as you want. To take delivery of shares, you must have sufficient funds in your account. You don’t get any margin to buy shares in delivery.
If you have Rs.5000 means you can buy shares worth of Rs.5000 and not more than this.

Day trading made easy Day trading

Buying and selling of shares on daily basis is called day trading this is also called as Intra day trading. Whatever you buy today you have to sell it today OR whatever you sell today you have to buy it today and very importantly during market hours that is 9.55 am to 3.30 pm (Indian time).

Resources to start your day trading in Indian share market

¨ Read financial newspaper like Business Standard, Economics Times, etc. If possible note down the high lights/breaking news with respective
company names and keep close watch on them for that day.
¨ If possible watch share (stock) market related TV channels like Zee Business, CNBC, etc. In these TV channels you get over all idea/movements
of all share prices and markets (BSE, NSE). And also it becomes easy to catch and keep close watch on related companies if any breaking
news comes out during that day.
¨ Especially some share market related websites always displays current news, market affairs, share market trends, breaking news and various
announcement done by company or government which may effect the share market and related companies. So try to access and have all ok on
such types of websites before starting trading and also through out the day, if possible.
For latest market news, latest stock updates on day to day basis and also latest share market updates which may affect your shares

Guide for daily profit in day trading

¨ Don’t jump in trend early - Wait and get paper confirmation of trend change, and then plan and do your trades (buy/sell). Don’t jump in or do
early trades before any trade change confirmation this may damage your capital (bank balance).
¨ Don’t wait in trade for long time - Suppose that you had done one trade (either buy or sell) but the scrip is not moving either up or down, it is
just stable or moving with very low price difference, then you should get out of that trade and look for other scrip’s. You may encounter these
type of situations when indices (NSE or BSE) and not moving (or moving with narrow range). At such time either you wait or come out of trade,
don’t loose patience and fall under loss.
¨ Don’t change your trend on volume volatility - Some time you enter in trade by seeing the buy and sell quantities. For example, suppose you
brought shares by seeing more buy quantity then sell quantity, expecting more buy quantity may push the share/stock up but after few
minutes you see exactly reverse that you see more sell quantity and less buy quantity or both buy and sell high quantity or the difference of
buying and selling quantity is decreased as compared to what you had seen before. So this point is very important, don’t panic here and sell
off your stock, wait and realize the situation properly and then take action. This situation comes many times but if you are sure that your share
is going to move up then stick to it.
¨ Beware of companies’ acquisition or any announcement by Government - Suppose in the morning, before market begins, you should read or
viewed the news of any Indian Company has acquired any foreign company (or part of foreign company) if you see this is actually best
news/things that Indian company. But if acquisition amount is far more than expectation then this good news will turn into worst news. The
shares of that company will start falling. So you should not get in trade and buy shares you have to wait and watch how market or other people
are responding to these shares and once you understand then you can trade. So always watch where the market heading towards and then
react.
Announcement of Government - You should also be very careful to decide your trade based on any government announcement.
For example, if government has declared any hike in interest rate then its good news for bank stocks and hence the shares will rise but if
government has declared 2nd rate hike in very less span of time as company to first one ( stay within duration of one, two month or three
month) then this news will be worse for bank stocks, the share may keeping fall during the trading period. So realize and analyze the news
and finally watch market behavior and this fall or do trade you will get success.

Information on Day trading tools


A successful day trader or share market trading requires couple of disciplines and following trading requirements -
¨ PC with internet - If you need to do trading yourself then you need to have a PC or else you can do trading in internet cafĂ© also. A PC
with good internet connection speed. The internet connection should not be slow or should not face any other problem especially in
Day Trading.
¨ Online Trading Account (Demat Account) - You need to open online share trading account with any of the available banks or online
brokers.
If you want to know more about demat account then please go to
and check in

Advantages of Day Trading

In Day trading you get margin on your balance amount means you get more leverages (amount) on your available balance amount to
do day trading this concept is called margin trading. Margin trading is only possible in day trading and not in delivery trading. How much
extra amount (margin) you are going to get that totally depends on your broker, or your online trading system brokers.
Some broker provides 3, 4, 5, and 6 times extra margin.
If you do margin trading then you have to square off your open trades on the same day (means if you bought shares then you have to
sell and if you sold shares then you have to buy)before market time (that is 3:30 PM) finishes.
¨ Second important advantage is that you have to pay is less brokerage (commissions) on day trading (Intraday) as compared to delivery
trading. This brokerage again depends from broker to broker (or on your online trading system).
¨ In day trading you can sell and then buy this is called short sell which you cant do in delivery trading. You can sell shares when
prices are falling and then buy when price falls further.